Kamis, 29 Maret 2012

Blog's Profile

Welcome to this blog!!!


This blog comprises informations and summaries of international economical, historical, and political issues which come from many sources including my books, international news from internet, TV broadcast, and many other. I hope my blog will give you good informations. If the contents are not relevant or controversial, I expect you can give me some critics and better solution for it.






I will be very happy if you leave some comments and open discussion.
Enjoy this blog!!!
Thank you for reading!!!
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Selasa, 27 Maret 2012

National debt vs. Budget Deficit


As a common people, when I read economic news, I get a number of difficult words. My lecturers in my majority, Accounting, are very rare talking about international economic. They are more interest in corruption issues, the biggest issue in my country. So, maybe I’ll write some articles containing definition of some economic terms to assist me understanding world’s economic issues, and I hope it will give advantage for you too, my beloved reader. Ok, as you read the title, I intend to distinguish Budget deficit and National Debt.

The Federal Budget Deficit is the federal spending that exceeds tax collection in a single year. The simple example to describe it is, in 2012 the federal revenue is approximately $2.2 trillion, and spending approximately $ 3.1 trillion, leaving a budget deficit of approximately $ 0.9 trillion. To cover it strap, the government needs to borrow $ 0.9 trillion to meet its entire projected obligation in that year.

Meanwhile, the National Debt has different definition; it is the cumulative running total of the federal government’s outstanding debt since the inception of the nation. The simple illustration is, in 2012 the federal revenue and tax collection is approximately $2.2 trillion, and expenditure approximately $ 3.1 trillion, leaving a budget deficit of approximately $ 0.9 trillion. This shortfall usually coped by borrowing from public through selling government bonds or the other debt instruments. The total of the $ 0.9 trillion that government must borrow, adding by all of previous year debt is called National Debt.

In conclusion, Federal Budget Deficit is the debt for the year but National Debt is the total debt since the establishment of the country.













http://thenationaldebtcrisis.com
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Conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz


Too late maybe talking about Hormuz, but I think learning about this strait will bring us in a never ending conflict.  Situated between the gulf of Oman in the southeast and Persian Gulf, this strategic strait is very important in international oil transportation lines. Roughly, about 20% world’s oil passes the strait. No wonder if military clashes frequently occur in this area.

On 18 April 1988, naval forces attack from US to Iranian water in retaliation to Iranian mining in Iraq-Iran war caused American warship damaged. This is dubbed as Operation Praying Mantis.



On  3 July 1988, United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes (CG-49) shot down a civilian jet airliner an Airbus A300B2-203 operated by Iran Air, on the Bandar Abbas-Dubai route. The strike toward the end of Iraq-Iran war resulted in dead all passengers and crew abroad. There were 290 killing including 66 children and 38 foreigners.

On 10 January 2007, collision between American nuclear-powered submarine, USS Newport News and Japanese oil tanker Mogamigawa happened in the strait. No injuries and oil leak.

The never ending disputed between  Iran and America pursued in 2007-2008, where five Iran’s boats patrol surrounding three US navy warship  the cruiser USS Port Royal, the destroyer USS Hopper and the frigate USSIngraham.

On 29 June 2008, the US-Iran contention still continued. Iran threaten, it would seal off the Hormuz Strait if Israel and US attacked Iran, thereby global oil prices skyrocketing, the statement came from the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Ali Muhammad Jafari. In contrary response, the commander of US 5th Fled stationed in Bahrain, Vice Admiral Kevin Cosgrave stated, such action will be trigger war, and US would halt the hostage of world’s oil supply.

In July 2008, US-UK-France and Brazilian frigate held joint military drill in the eastern US coast, Atlantic to exercise blockading Iran’s coast in the Strait of Hormuz.

The recent tension between Iran and western countries is due to the allegation of Iran nuclear weapons development. IAEA claimed that Iran in advance of developing warhead assisted by Soviet scientists. As the result UN imposed sanction to the Iranian economy. United State will give sanction to the Iranian company which backs the Iran nuclear activity, EU agreed of banning Iran oil importation, also trade in gold, precious metals, diamonds and petrochemical products from Iran. EU is also freezing Iran’s central bank assets in Europe.

Israel pushed US to attack Iran, but US still offering Iran to open dialogue. Iran’s president, Ahmadinejad denied the accusation of developing nuclear weapons, all Iran nuclear activity for piece purpose. Iran not allowed the IAEA observer to investigate important nuclear location in Parchin, south of the Iranian capital, Tehran. In response of UN sanctions Iran will stop all the oil importation to EU countries as retaliation, and again, it will close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also tested fires long range missiles in naval exercise in January 2012 in the strait.

Now, the effect of the tensions in the Hormuz Strait has been perceived by countries in the world including my country, Indonesia. Yes, actually the prediction oil price in my country will rise, mass demonstration held in some of town in country to deter the government policy in deciding cut off the oil subsidies.

In the end, I hope the both Us-ally and Iran will understand that oil price is one of sensitive issue in the world, don’t be egoism.




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Kamis, 15 Maret 2012

EURO : SINGLE CURRENCY PROS AND CONS



Euro is single currency applied by 17 members of European countries comprising by Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, LuxembourgMalta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. They join together in euro area called euro zone.

Monetary policy handled by European Central Bank (ECB) purposed for keeping inflation under control. Fiscal policy remains in the hand of each country. Though, they implement the non binding agreement known as Stability and Growth pact.

In the initial establishment, euro constructed for offering good economic and political sense, travel easier, stable currency with low inflation and interest rate, encourage sounds of public finance. It’s also elevating price transparency, omitting currency exchange cost, facilitating international trade and positioning EU gain more voice in international stage through the openness trade with the world.

This currency has international financial scope for :
a.      International debt market
The third countries and also private corporations can issue bond (known as sovereign bonds if issued by foreign currency, or corporate bonds, issued by corporations) and regain payment with fixed interest future date.
b.      International loan and deposit market
c.        Foreign exchange rate
d.      International trade
e.       Reserves and anchor

The above statements are truly going not smoothly, after years survive from its first creation signed by Maastricht Treaty at 1992, now, bound to fail. Euro is not similar with single currency used by United States, dollars. There are some reasons of the dollars stability stance, allowing all of the U.S states operate this – labour mobility, wage flexibility, and central fiscal authority, none of this exist in Europe.

When some industries in north-eastern states closed, then the workers can move to the west, but, it can't be done in the quite different countries in Europe because of discrepancy of language, history, union membership and so on.

The euro zone governments have to oblige the stability pact and sometimes some of them are not prevalent to practise the criteria’s. One case that can describe this condition – When demand in Germany and France was quite weak early in the last decade, the ECB reduced interest rates sharply. That helped Germany and France but it also inflated real estate bubble in Spain and Ireland.
The other barriers are the different cycle of each countries and difference stage in their cycle, where each country facing different problems.

Using single currency can also cause the loss of national sovereignty because of cooperation between high performance of economic in some countries and the other weak economic countries performance.

Introducing new single currency also needs great cost for educating costumers, changing labels, training staff, changing computer software, and adjusting tills
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Kamis, 23 Februari 2012

Syrian Uprising

Hello world!!!

Hope your country prosperous, safe and calm so you can do your activities without feeling anxious, different with this country “Syria”. Until this time, after I finish my writing, maybe Syrian still in horrible sketch. Yes, this country attract whole world’s attention as widespread of disruption in some cities like Damascus, Hama, Daraa, Qamishi, Homs, Allepo, and others.  Thousand people died in this bloody crackdown and many other injured.

Actually, why does this ongoing upheaval hit this country?

Syrian uprising becomes the part of Arab Spring in last 2010, most of citizen fed up with exacerbated political and economical condition.  They want topple the Bashar al Assad dictatorship regime, and ending the corrupt and ravage constitutional system.  The main baground behind this chaos are:
a.  Authoritarian system.
In 1971, Hafez al Assad (Alawite sect), the former of Defense Minister, obtained the prestigious seat in Syrian government as president. He pursued the inheriting precede dictatorship regime. His initiate policy was popular among his citizen but then erased by political repression. The most unforgettable moment was “Hama Massacre”. In 2000, after he died, the authority ceded to his son Bashar al Assad, the now Syria's strongest man. Like father, like son, Bashar doing the same mistakes like his father did, the Homs shelling remind us the pain memory of Hama massacre.
b.      Absence of effective constitution.
c.        Government corruption.
d.      High unemployment.
e.       Triggered by the other Arab countries.

What are the purposes of Syrian revolution?

a.      Ending Bashar Al Assad regime.
For more than decade, Bashar al Assad rules this country continuing 30 years his father leadership. The parliament altered the constitution, reducing the mandatory minimum age of president from 40 to 34, so Bashar Al Assad could acquire the throne for this disguise republican country.
b.      Democratic reform
Democratic offer more access for political freedom, something that is expensive in Syria, admitting the human right, and wider participation for citizen.
c.        Regime change.
New laws had been introduced by Assad regime, but political system is still stagnant. The superiority of Baath Party hampers the other minority party's role. In the economic sector Assad revealed reform on more market oriented controlled by the state. The growing rate of unemployment and poverty raise the civilian eagerness to hasten overthrowing the regime.
d.      Expanse civil right
Although this regime is not as harsh as previous but, civil right still remain big issue. Wider admission is needed in the vacuum presence of civilian in decision making and many other fields.
e.       Recognition of Kurdish right
Kurd is the largest Non Arab ethnic minority. In Syria, this ethnic becomes one of the targets of systemic discrimination for example arbitrary denial of estimated 300.000 citizenship Syrian who wasborn as Kurdish, banning of teaching Kurdish in school, etc.
f.        Abolition of Supreme State Security Court
g.       Lifting of emergency law
Emergency rule was applied in 1963. “Syria's government approved lifting the country's nearly 50-year-old state of emergency Tuesday to meet a key demand of anti-government protesters, but opposition leaders dismissed it as an attempt by President Bashar Assad to claim reforms but maintain his hard-line rule” this is the information from CBS News.
Syrian uprising colored by variety form of upheaval like hunger strike, mutiny, insurgent, hactivism, civil resistance, demonstration, general strike, insurgency, sectarian violence, mutiny, sit in. The initiate moment signed by Self-immolation (setting oneself on fire) done by Hasan Ali Akleh from Al-Hasakah same way with Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia.


In early February 2012, UN proposed Security Council vetoed by Russia and doubled by China’s veto. Both of this country makes US and other Western Countries anger. Last year Russia abstains in UN Libya’s draft and there was no veto so NATO could enter in Benghazi, and join war in Bani Walid, Khadafy’s stronghold. Learning from Libya, China and Russia prefer diplomacy way because the presence of the external military was not so effective as the are still a lot of number civilian victims.

Officials’ senior from Russia, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Mikhail Fradkov went to Damascus discussing about dialogue with the opposition and offering referendum on new constitution.  The result of discussion that Russian called productive remains controversial because the violence in Homs and other cities by Syrian military still continued.

In 26 Feb Syria will hold constitution referendum. The step supported by China, Russia, and Iran, but conversely, considered as “window dressing” by western newsletter.

The recent story that I get is the dead of two journalists in Syria shelling on Homs they are British Marie Colvin and French Remi Ochlik.

All over the world send condolence for all Syrian war victims and families. Hope that Syrian revolution will be success and get better life condition.


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Sabtu, 18 Februari 2012

Syria

Hello friends this is my first article, I choose Syria to learn deeper. Why Syria?? It’s because of I’m curious about Bashar Al Assad, Homs  violence,  Hama massacre, why Russia n China vetoed UN proposed Security Council, and everything about war within Syria. The domino effect of Arabs spring has drawn Syria into the bloody crackdown on political protest, and this makes the involvement of the other countries in giving solution. Very interest conflict to discuss, isn’t it? But, before we discuss further the current upheaval in Syria, better for us knowing past enchanting history of this country.

Short history
Syria (Indonesians  pronounce “Suriah”) is Western Asia country bordering Lebanon and Mediterranean Sea to the west,  Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south, and Israel to the southwest. Most of Syrians are Sunny, the other are Alawi, Christian, and Druze. The most ancient civilization on the earth was founded here, Syria was the center of the Neolithic culture where agriculture and cattle breeding were introduced first time.
During the second millennium BC, Syria was occupied by CanaanitesPhoenicians, and Arameans successively. Then, The Persian authority spread until Southwest Asia including Syria. Syria's large and prosperous population made it was one of the most important of the Roman provinces, particularly during the 2nd and 3rd centuries. In its Christian era, Syrian had contributed Roman Emperors, they are Alexander Severus, Elagabalus, and Philip the Arab (Marcus Julius Philippus).
The Islamic era started at  AD 640, signed by conquest of Khalid Ibn al-Walid through led the Rashidun Army. In the midle of the 7th century, empire ruled by Umayyad Dynasty and the capital city located in Damascus.  We can take a good lesson of the high toleration of the religious congregation living at this time.
The golden era of this caliphate collapsed of its internal problem like totalitarianism, corruption, and also the movement of oppressed and miserable group.  When Abbasid Dynasty took control, the capital city was moved to Bagdad. Syrian mujahedeen born in crusade time, Syria also fought with Shia extremist called Assasins and engaged in the battle with Mongolian  which then defeated by Mamluks.
In 1921, Syria was occupied by French troops.  According to League Nation, this area was taken under French mandate. Insurgents against the occupation emerged conducted by Sultan Al Atrash in 1925 in Druze Mountain, in August fighting erupted in Damascus, Homs, and Hama. In 1940, Francein fell during WW II, and then Syria was controlled by Vichy France. Syria proclaimed its independent in 17 April 1946.
Government
Type: Republic under authoritarian military-dominate Arab socialist Baath Party regime since March 1963. The other source said Syria is totalitarian dictatorship, secular socialist with Islam as the majority religion. Branches of government:
a.      Executive : President, two vice president, prime minister, and council of minister (cabinet)
b.      Legislative: unicameral People's Council, no multiparty election.
c.        Judicial : Supreme Constitutional Court, the High Judicial Council, the Court of Cassation, and the Security Courts
Government branches are monitored by Baath Party, which the constitution vasts the power
Syria’s legislation based on Islamic jurisprudence and the judicial system consist of Islam, Ottoman, and French laws element.
The court has three levels: courts of first instance, courts of appeals, and the constitutional court, the highest tribunal.
Politic
The Arab Socialist Baath Party has dominant role in the leadership function and it provides broad power to president who is elected by referendum and reigns for 7 years. The President is the Secretary-General of the party, and the leader of the National Progressive Front governing coalition has authority to appoint ministers, to declare war and states of emergency, to issue laws (which, except in the case of emergency, require ratification by the People's Council), to declare amnesty, to amend the constitution, and to appoint civil servants and military personnel.
External conflict
1948 : Syria Involved in Arab-Israeli War, deterring the establishment of Israel State and the notable conflict is the seizure of Golan Height,  Syrian stronghold.
1956 : Syria support Egypt in Suez Crisis by merging of the two states, creating United Arab Republic until 28 September 1961.
1967 : Engaged in tragic "six days war" (5 June 1967 – 10 June 1967) with Israel.
1973 : Yom Kippur War
1976 : In Lebanese Civil War, Syria attempted to control Lebanon. Criminal cases like the political figures assassination of Rafik HaririKamal Jumblat and Bachir Gemayel were donated by Syrian forces and intelligence. Many said that Syrian existence in Lebanon like occupation. Its presence in Lebanon ended in 2005 by troop’s withdrawal.
2004 : Adoption of the Syria Accountability Act by the House of Representatives International Relations committee as impact of US sanction to stop strong relationship with Hamas and Hezbollah, left Lebanon, to terminate Syria’s allegation of  WMDs, to stop Syria’s illegal oil importation from Iraq, to cease the illegal shipment of military item to anti-US forces in Iraq.
2008 : Open talk to Israel to discuss the fate of Golan Heights, the main obstacle of the both relation, now this area still under Israel state and there hasn’t been further solution.
Ok, friends.,, this is only short information about Syria as the preface knowing further events happen in Syria now. My next writing will talk about Syrian uprising recently., So, let’s discuss it!!!! ^^


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